Inside Nikola Jokic’s Favorable Odds to Win NBA MVP: A Closer Look

Nikola Jokic has cemented himself as a dominant force in the NBA, and his position as the frontrunner for the 2024-25 NBA MVP award highlights this status. With odds of +115 on ESPN BET, the Denver Nuggets’ Serbian superstar is favored to reclaim the coveted title, potentially equaling LeBron James’ historic achievement of four MVPs in five seasons.

Jokic’s MVP Case and Betting Trends

Jokic opened the season tied with Luka Doncic at +300 for the MVP race but has since solidified his lead. After an explosive performance in December, which included a 56-point outing against the Washington Wizards, sportsbooks listed him at -120 odds – the earliest a candidate has been given such status in three seasons. Adrian Horton, ESPN BET’s Director of North American Sportsbook Trading, remarked that Jokic’s stellar performances and consistent betting support have made him the clear favorite.

“Jokic is playing like an MVP, and the betting public has supported him throughout the season,” Horton stated. As of now, Jokic accounts for 60.7% of early bets and 36.5% of handle since the market opened in June.

Despite his consistent dominance, some critics argue that factors like voter fatigue and a competitive field could hinder Jokic’s chances. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, for instance, gained traction after leading the Oklahoma City Thunder to a hot start, briefly surpassing Jokic in November. Giannis Antetokounmpo’s resurgence and his Milwaukee Bucks’ success in the NBA Cup have also tightened the MVP race, with Giannis and Shai now boasting odds of +475 and +275, respectively.

Statistical Brilliance

Jokic’s numbers this season are nothing short of extraordinary. The 29-year-old leads the league in efficiency while ranking second in scoring (30.9 points), rebounding (13.3), and assists (9.9) per game. According to Hal Egeland, BetMGM’s Strategic Transactions Director, “Jokic is undeniably the best overall player in the NBA. If the Nuggets improve their standing, his odds will shorten further.”

Despite the Nuggets’ slower-than-expected start, Jokic’s performances have been consistent, delivering four triple-doubles in just one week, which propelled him back to the top of the MVP discussion.

Competitive Landscape

However, the race remains tight. Antetokounmpo’s Bucks recently captured the NBA Cup, adding weight to his MVP argument. Additionally, Gilgeous-Alexander continues to shine as the leader of the Thunder, the top team in the Western Conference.

DraftKings Sportsbook reports increased interest in longshot bets on players like Anthony Davis, Anthony Edwards, and Karl-Anthony Towns, whose odds stretch as high as 100-1. Meanwhile, Johnny Avello, DraftKings’ Sportsbook Director, emphasized that bettors are exploring options with slightly higher returns, including Doncic at +700 and Jayson Tatum at +2500.

Jokic’s Path Forward

As it stands, the MVP award remains Jokic’s to lose. The reigning champion’s ability to maintain his statistical dominance while keeping the Nuggets competitive is a compelling argument for his case. Sportsbooks note that even negative odds haven’t deterred bettors from backing Jokic, underscoring the confidence in his continued excellence.

Still, narratives play a significant role in MVP voting, and players like Gilgeous-Alexander and Antetokounmpo bring compelling storylines to the table. “Voters often consider great stories, and voter fatigue can influence decisions,” Egeland explained.

For now, Jokic’s brilliance on the court and overwhelming betting support suggest that the MVP award is well within his reach. If he continues to dominate statistically and leads the Nuggets to success, it will be difficult to argue that anyone else deserves the honor. The 2024-25 season is shaping up to be yet another showcase of Nikola Jokic’s unparalleled talent and influence in the league.