The Guardian view on Syrian turmoil: alliances shift while Assad’s grip weakens | Editorial
With a dictatorship under pressure, a nation’s chaos could reshape regional alliances and risk broader instability across the Middle EastIs the Syrian war – the 21st century’s most protracted and second-deadliest conflict – finally nearing its end? One would not bet on it. While a coalition of rebels is closing in from the north toward the capital, Damascus, and has seized key southern border crossings, the fall of the House of Assad remains more prophecy than reality. Yet the odds of President Bashar al-Assad’s departure are shortening. The military forces that once saved his regime – Russian airpower and Hezbollah’s militant fighters – are now preoccupied in Ukraine and Lebanon. Mr Assad looks increasingly vulnerable.Since the Arab spring reached Syria in March 2011, Mr Assad’s regime has repeatedly defied predictions of collapse. Ruling through fear and intimidation, he has been credibly accused of using chemical weapons, lethal force and brutal torture against his own people. Syria would be better off without him. His fortunes seemed to shift last year when he was welcomed back into the Arab fold after a decade of isolation. Yet this return reflected the self-interest of Arab monarchs and autocrats rather than genuine reconciliation. They saw Mr Assad as a safer bet than the chaos his fall might unleash. Continue reading...
With a dictatorship under pressure, a nation’s chaos could reshape regional alliances and risk broader instability across the Middle East
Is the Syrian war – the 21st century’s most protracted and second-deadliest conflict – finally nearing its end? One would not bet on it. While a coalition of rebels is closing in from the north toward the capital, Damascus, and has seized key southern border crossings, the fall of the House of Assad remains more prophecy than reality. Yet the odds of President Bashar al-Assad’s departure are shortening. The military forces that once saved his regime – Russian airpower and Hezbollah’s militant fighters – are now preoccupied in Ukraine and Lebanon. Mr Assad looks increasingly vulnerable.
Since the Arab spring reached Syria in March 2011, Mr Assad’s regime has repeatedly defied predictions of collapse. Ruling through fear and intimidation, he has been credibly accused of using chemical weapons, lethal force and brutal torture against his own people. Syria would be better off without him. His fortunes seemed to shift last year when he was welcomed back into the Arab fold after a decade of isolation. Yet this return reflected the self-interest of Arab monarchs and autocrats rather than genuine reconciliation. They saw Mr Assad as a safer bet than the chaos his fall might unleash.
