Can Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins Make a Postseason Push?

The Miami Dolphins have experienced a rollercoaster of a year, and their playoff hopes now hinge on a revitalized offense and steady defensive performance as they approach the final stretch of the season. Let’s analyze where they stand and whether a playoff berth is within reach.

2023: A Season of Highs and Lows

Last season, the Dolphins were poised for dominance after a strong start, sitting at 9-3 with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa putting up elite numbers. But an unexpected collapse in December, including a devastating loss to the Titans and a late-season stumble, derailed their momentum. Miami scraped into the playoffs as the No. 6 seed but exited unceremoniously after a flat performance against the Chiefs.

2024: A Season of Setbacks

This year hasn’t been kinder. Tagovailoa suffered a concussion in Week 2, leading to a 1-3 record during his absence. However, his return has rejuvenated Miami’s offense. In his first two games back, the Dolphins scored 27 points per game, ranking second in expected points added during that stretch.

Tua Tagovailoa: A Tale of Two Seasons

Tagovailoa’s 2023 campaign set a high bar, where he:

• Led the NFL with 4,624 passing yards.
• Posted a solid 8.1-yard average depth of target (ADOT), ranking 21st.

This season, while his accuracy has improved, his ADOT has plummeted to 6.0 yards, the lowest among 40 quarterbacks. This shift reflects fewer game-changing throws and more caution, possibly a strategic adjustment after his injuries. Now at 4-6, Miami is clinging to playoff hopes with a crucial Week 12 matchup against the Patriots on the horizon.

The Defense: A Subtle Improvement

Miami’s defense, consistent with 2023, has slightly improved in critical situations. Their non-garbage-time metrics suggest a unit that can better support the offense, a crucial factor given Tagovailoa’s dip in efficiency.

The Path Forward: A Tightrope Walk

With six losses already, the Dolphins have little margin for error. They likely need to finish 6-1 to secure a playoff spot, a daunting task given their remaining schedule:

• Toughest Matchups: Texans (away) and 49ers (home).
• Potential Pitfalls: Packers in Green Bay.

The return of Bradley Chubb in Week 14 could bolster Miami’s 17th-ranked pass rush, but that alone won’t guarantee success.

Can Miami Do It?

The Dolphins’ playoff hopes rest on two factors:

Tua Tagovailoa returning to 2023 form. His ability to execute head coach Mike McDaniel’s timing-based offense is essential.

The defense stepping up. While not elite, it needs to consistently pressure opponents to compensate for offensive shortcomings.

The AFC’s depth complicates matters, with fierce competition for the final wild-card spot. While the Dolphins have shown flashes of playoff-caliber play, their inconsistency and a tough schedule make the climb steep.